AI Matters

An interesting IEEE Spectrum article “AI and Economic Productivity: Expect Evolution, Not Revolution” by Jeffrey Funk questions popular claims about the rapid pace of AI’s impact on productivity and the economy. He asserts that “Despite the hype, artificial intelligence will take years to significantly boost economic productivity”. If correct, this will have serious implications for public policymaking who have chosen due be proactive. The article raises good points, but many of the examples do not look like real AI, at least as a dominant component. Putting “smart” in the name of a product doesn’t make it AI, and automation doesn’t necessarily use AI. 

On a broader note, we should care about the technology language we use and be aware of the usual practices in commercialization. As discussed in previous blog posts, expanding too far the meanings of terms like AI, machine learning, and algorithms makes rational discourse more difficult. Some of us remember marketing of expert systems and relational databases: companies do a disservice to society by claiming each breakthrough technology actually is in their products. Here we go again — today about anything counts as AI depending on the point you want to make and the products you want to sell. 

Another issue raised by the article is from the emphasis on startups as the leaders of economic impact, as opposed to the results of innovations from established industry and government labs. Technologies have adoption curves, going from early adopters through the laggards, of about seven years. If you add to that the difficulties of making a startup succeed, a decade or so is probably the minimum timescale for large impact on the economy. A better perspective on revolution versus evolution could come from longitudinal evaluations looking at trends. In that case, a good endpoint for a hypothesis about dramatic impact on productivity might be the 2030-2035 timeframe. 

A problem with using a vague or broad notion of AI is that policymakers could miss the revolutionary impact of data science, which can, but may not, involve real AI. Data science probably has the best chance of dramatically impacting society and the economy in the short and long terms and has the advantage of not having to involve designing and manufacturing physical objects, and thus not always having to wait for consumers to adopt new products. Data Science is already affecting society and employment with obvious, and not so obvious, revolutionary impacts on our lives.

AI and other automation technologies have great promise for benefitting society and enhancing productivity, but appropriate policies by companies and governments are needed to help manage workforce transitions and make them as smooth as possible. The McKinsey Global Institute report AI, automation, and the future of work: Ten things to solve for states that “There is work for everyone today and there will be work for everyone tomorrow, even in a future with automation. Yet that work will be different, requiring new skills, and a far greater adaptability of the workforce than we have seen. Training and retraining both mid-career workers and new generations for the coming challenges will be an imperative. Government, private-sector leaders, and innovators all need to work together to better coordinate public and private initiatives, including creating the right incentives to invest more in human capital. The future with automation and AI will be challenging, but a much richer one if we harness the technologies with aplomb—and mitigate the negative effects.” They list likely actionable and scalable solutions in several key areas:

1. Ensuring robust economic and productivity growth

2. Fostering business dynamism

3. Evolving education systems and learning for a changed workplace

4. Investing in human capital

5. Improving labor-market dynamism

6. Redesigning work

7. Rethinking incomes

8. Rethinking transition support and safety nets for workers affected

9. Investing in drivers of demand for work

10. Embracing AI and automation safely

In redesigning work and rethinking incomes, we have the chance for bold ideas that improve the lives of workers and give them more interesting jobs that could provide meaning, purpose, and dignity.

Some of the categories of new jobs that could replace old jobs are
1. Making, designing, and coding in AI, data science, and engineering occupations
2. Working in new types of non-AI jobs that are enhanced by AI, making unpleasant old jobs more palatable or providing new jobs that are more interesting; the gig economy and crowdsourcing ideas are examples that could provide creative employment options
3. Providing living wages for people to do things they love; for example, in the arts through dramatic funding increases for NEA and NEH programs. Grants to individual artists and musicians, professional and amateur musical organizations, and informal arts education initiatives could enrich communities while providing income for millions of people. Policies to implement this idea could be one piece of the future-of-work puzzle and be much more preferable for the economy and society than allowing large-scale unemployment due to loss of work from automation.

The past few weeks have been busy with government events and announcements on AI Policy.

The G20 on AI

Ministers from the Group of 20 major economies conducted meetings on trade and the digital economy. They produced guiding principles for using artificial intelligence based on principles adopted last month by the 36-member OECD and an additional six countries. The G20 guidelines call for users and developers of AI to be fair and accountable, with transparent decision-making processes and to respect the rule of law and values including privacy, equality, diversity and internationally recognized labor rights. Meanwhile, the principles also urge governments to ensure a fair transition for workers through training programs and access to new job opportunities.

Bipartisan Group of Legislators Act on “Deepfake” Videos

The senators introduced legislation Friday intended to lessen the threat posed by “deepfake” videos — those created with AI technologies to manipulate original videos and produce misleading information. With this legislation, the Department of Homeland Security would conduct an annual study of deepfakes and related content and require the department to assess the AI technologies used to create deepfakes. This could lead to changes to regulations or new regulations impacting the use of AI.

Hearing on Societal and Ethical Implications of AI

The House Science, Space and Technology Committee held a hearing.  June 26th  on the societal and ethical implications of artificial intelligence, now available on video.

The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan, released in June, is an update of the report by the Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence of The National Science & Technology Council.

On February 11, 2019, the President signed Executive Order 13859 Maintaining American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence. According to Michael Kratsios, Deputy Assistant to the President for Technology Policy, this order “launched the American AI Initiative, which is a concerted effort to promote and protect AI technology and innovation in the United States. The Initiative implements a whole-of-government strategy in collaboration and engagement with the private sector, academia, the public, and likeminded international partners. Among other actions, key directives in the Initiative call for Federal agencies to prioritize AI research and development (R&D) investments, enhance access to high-quality cyberinfrastructure and data, ensure that the Nation leads in the development of technical standards for AI, and provide education and training opportunities to prepare the American workforce for the new era of AI.

“The first seven strategies continue from the 2016 Plan, reflecting the reaffirmation of the importance of these strategies by multiple respondents from the public and government, with no calls to remove any of the strategies. The eighth strategy is new and focuses on the increasing importance of effective partnerships between the Federal Government and academia, industry, other non-Federal entities, and international allies to generate technological breakthroughs in AI and to rapidly transition those breakthroughs into capabilities.”

Strategy 8: Expand Public–Private Partnerships to Accelerate Advances in AI is new in the June, 2019, plan and “reflects the growing importance of public-private partnerships enabling AI R&D an expands public-private partnerships to accelerate advances in AI. Promote opportunities for sustained investment in AI R&D and for transitioning advances into practical capabilities, in collaboration with academia, industry, international partners, and other non-Federal entities.”

Continued points from the seven Strategies in the previous Executive Order in February include

1. support for the development of instructional materials and teacher professional development in computer science at all levels, with emphasis at the K–12 levels

2. consideration of AI as a priority area within existing Federal fellowship and service programs

3. development AI techniques for human augmentation

4. emphasis on achieving trust: AI system designers need to create accurate, reliable systems with informative, user-friendly interfaces.

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) is functioning again. NSTC is the principal means by which the Executive Branch coordinates science and technology policy across the diverse entities that make up the Federal research and development enterprise. A primary objective of the NSTC is to ensure that science and technology policy decisions and programs are consistent with the President’s stated goals. The NSTC prepares research and development strategies that are coordinated across Federal agencies aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals. The work of the NSTC is organized under committees that oversee subcommittees and working groups focused on different aspects of science and technology. More information is available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/nstc.

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976 to provide the President and others within the Executive Office of the President with advice on the scientific, engineering, and technological aspects of the economy, national security, homeland security, health, foreign relations, the environment, and the technological recovery and use of resources, among other topics. OSTP leads interagency science and technology policy coordination efforts, assists the Office of Management and Budget with an annual review and analysis of Federal research and development (R&D) in budgets, and serves as a source of scientific and technological analysis and judgment for the President with respect to major policies, plans, and programs of the Federal Government. More information is available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp.

Groups that advise and assist the NSTC on AI include  

* The Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence (AI) addresses Federal AI R&D activities, including those related to autonomous systems, biometric identification, computer vision, human computer interactions, machine learning, natural language processing, and robotics. The committee supports policy on technical, national AI workforce issues.

* The Subcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence monitors the state of the art in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence within the Federal Government, in the private sector, and internationally.

* The Artificial Intelligence Research & Development Interagency Working Group coordinates Federal R&D in AI and supports and coordinates activities tasked by the Select Committee on AI and the NSTC Subcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence.

More information is available at https://www.nitrd.gov/groups/AI.

With AI in the news so much over the past year, the public awareness of potential problems arising from the proliferation of AI systems and products has led to increasing calls for regulation. The popular media, and even technical media, contain misinformation and misplaced fears, but plenty of legitimate issues exist even if their relative importance is sometimes misunderstood. Policymakers, researchers, and developers need to be in dialog about the true needs and potential dangers of regulation.

“Google top lawyer pushes back against one-size-fits-all rules for AI” by Janosch Delcker at POLITICO is an example of corporate reaction to the calls for regulation. “Understanding exactly the applications that we see for AI, and how those should be regulated, that’s an important next chapter,” Kent Walker, Google’s senior vice president for global affairs and the company’s chief legal officer, told POLITICO during a recent visit to Germany. “But you generally don’t want one-size-fits-all regulation, especially for a tool that is going to be used in a lot of different ways,” he added.

From our policy perspective, the significant risks from AI systems include misuse and faulty unsafe designs that can create bias, non-transparency of use, and loss of privacy.  AI systems are known to discriminate against minorities, unintentionally and not. An important discussion we should be having is if governments, international organizations, and big corporations, which have already released dozens of non-binding guidelines for the responsible development and use of AI, are the best entities for writing and enforcing regulations. Non-binding principles will not make some companies developing and applying AI products accountable. An important point in this regard is to hold companies responsible for the product design process itself, not just for testing products after they are in use.

Introduction of new government regulations is a long process and subject to pressure from lobbyists, and the current US administration is generally inclined against regulations anyway. We should discuss alternatives like clearinghouses and consumer groups endorsing AI products designed for safety and ethical use. If well publicized, the endorsements of respected non-partisan groups including professional societies might be more effective and timely than government regulations. The European Union has released its Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI, and a second document with recommendations on how to boost investment in Europe’s AI industry is to be published. In May, 2019, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) issued their first set of international OECD Principles on Artificial Intelligence, which are embraced by the United State and leading AI companies.